I live in Switzerland and due to local laws, there is currently only one sportsbook called sporttip. They don’t offer many prop bets, mostly offering outcomes of many different sports and leagues.
My goal is to treat this as a hobby/side hustle, do some recreational programming and maybe make some money in the long run.
I wrote some python script that compares offered bets with 538 model predictions in MLB and soccer to identify potential edges. I’m aware that these models are flawed but so far I got lucky and it worked ok.
Is it even possible to get an edge there or is this hopeless?
You will lose money if you continue to use 538, I would stop now and build a model first, test it, does it beat the pinnacle closing line, if yes then use it, if no keep trying to find ways to beat the closing line
You may only be able to bet at one book, but thanks to the wonder of the internet and VPN’s you have access to all the publicly available information everyone else has.
Having only one book reduces your opportunity to use this information, but it does not kill it. You never know - your book might be particularly soft. If it goes well you will also be able to get access to other betting venues.
Another question is - if it does well will your book cut you off/impose low bet limits? Because that argues for not even bothering with them (due to sunk costs).
With the margin that swiss bookmakers take it will be very very difficult to win domestically. Major 1x2 football markets with more than 11% margin, compared to Pinnacle 2.4%. I can only imagine what the player prop margins are. There is a good reason they make it tax free to win domestically lol - because long term you can’t win.
There is no way to beat an 11% margin when you only have access to one bookmaker. People do beat that kind of margin (like on player props) do so by line shopping extensively and creating a “synthetic margin” that is much smaller.
You are much better off finding better prices elsewhere and giving yourself a chance to actually win money. Sure you would have to pay tax on it, but if you bet domestically there won’t be any profit not pay tax on.
As for 538, I tweeted about this recently. Happy to hear you’ve gotten lucky thus far but long term it’s definitely a losing methodology in most cases.
As far as I know from reading the terms, they can’t ban you for being a winning bettor but it says they can limit bets without explanation. I don’t know if they can do it player specific though, it just says that in general. Max bet is 1k which I don’t think I’ll hit anytime soon.
Due to low volume they have a larger house edge, which makes matters worse. E.g. Mariners @ Orioles is 1.89 and 1.82 where Draft Kings gives 1.95 and 1.87
That’s not really an option, again because of Swiss regulations. I would have to pay taxes on any foreign sports betting which makes it a pain. For personal reasons, I don’t want to take any risks in that regard. Winnings on the regulated site are tax free up to 1M.
I’m sure the terms for all books say this stuff - you really need to try to find out the experiences of other sharp customers. Also see if your book has commercial arrangements with companies like Kambi. These guys are experts at customer profiling.
